THIS may be the season of predictions, but few are being brave or unwise enough to forecast what’s going to happen in Thailand over the next 12 months. As it stands, the political situation is on lockdown. And everything else hinges on it.
Realistically, there’s only one person who can solve the impasse, and prevent this country from a fate that only military leaders have so far espoused. And that’s Thaksin Shinawatra. If he renounced his political and other ambitions, and those of his family and closest associates, then Thailand can move on, or at least begin a period of reconciliation acceptable to all sides that would lead, hopefully, to a radical overhaul of what has become a political system riddled with corruption.
There’s no sign of that happening, of course. Quite the opposite, in fact, with the Pheu Thai party announcing a very pro-Thaksin line-up of candidates for the next elections, supposedly to be held next month. The man himself is clearly determined to get his revenge, money or destiny, or whatever else he wants to call it. He’s not for turning.
So, the stalemate looks set to continue, which does not bode well. Surely Thaksin and his team must have watched with considerable concern the recent anti-government demonstrations in Bangkok involving hundreds of thousands of so-called middle class Thais, and wondered how on earth these masses would react if the PT party is returned (which is likely), and Thaksin is eventually forgiven and brought back into the fold.
Realistically, there’s only one person who can solve the impasse, and prevent this country from a fate that only military leaders have so far espoused. And that’s Thaksin Shinawatra. If he renounced his political and other ambitions, and those of his family and closest associates, then Thailand can move on, or at least begin a period of reconciliation acceptable to all sides that would lead, hopefully, to a radical overhaul of what has become a political system riddled with corruption.
There’s no sign of that happening, of course. Quite the opposite, in fact, with the Pheu Thai party announcing a very pro-Thaksin line-up of candidates for the next elections, supposedly to be held next month. The man himself is clearly determined to get his revenge, money or destiny, or whatever else he wants to call it. He’s not for turning.
So, the stalemate looks set to continue, which does not bode well. Surely Thaksin and his team must have watched with considerable concern the recent anti-government demonstrations in Bangkok involving hundreds of thousands of so-called middle class Thais, and wondered how on earth these masses would react if the PT party is returned (which is likely), and Thaksin is eventually forgiven and brought back into the fold.
These protestors hold down important positions and perform vital roles in the economy. It wouldn’t be difficult for them to derail the new government at will, if they wanted to. That possibility must have dawned on the Thaksin team.
That’s not to say the Democrats have all the answers. Patently they don’t. And besides, whatever else they might claim, and however impressive the recent demonstrations have been, it must be remembered (though many in the anti-government camp reject this notion) that only a minority of the population supports them. Moreover, many of those demonstrating are not out on the streets to show their support for the Democrats and Suthep Thaugsuban, but to express their dissatisfaction with the overall political system.
Over the past few weeks, the Democrats have done themselves no favors with their fiery rhetoric, outlandish behavior and chilling intolerance of alternative viewpoints. And somewhat ironically, their solution to the impasse – a people’s council – can hardly be described as democratic. Even in the unlikely event that the Democrats did get their way, and the government caved in, the reaction of the red shirt majority is almost not worth thinking about.
What some people from both sides of the divide would like to see evolve from this chaos is a new party that is prepared to come clean with its candidates, their policies and their complete rejection of the corrupt practices that have bedeviled recent politics.
This is a long shot, of course, and it can only happen without Thaksin and Suthep. Thailand needs a new start if it is to avoid the kind of strife a few people are now prepared to talk about in public, though many more fear it privately.
• Foreign journalists covering the current political stand-off have come in for a good deal of criticism recently. When BBC correspondent Jonathon Head ran a three-minute TV clip on a red shirt stronghold in the Northeast, he was vilified and accused of bias by anti-government supporters. This was grossly unfair. Head was only doing his job. As a journalist, he is expected to present all points of view. And the couple of people he interviewed do represent the beliefs of millions of Northeasterners who vote for the Pheu Thai party and its leader. They need to be heard just as the opposition needs to be heard. For Thailand to progress, the press should not be gagged.
• A common complaint amongst anti-government supporters is that the Pheu Thai party ‘bought’ its votes. This may well be true, but it’s nothing new, here in Thailand or elsewhere for that matter. Politicians have always won support with promises of great generosity once they’ve been elected. Does anyone remember how the wealthy Thai city of Suphanburi was often jokingly referred to as Banharnburi in recognition of its MP and former prime minister Banharn Silpa-archa whose largesse to his voters always guaranteed his re-election?
That’s not to say the Democrats have all the answers. Patently they don’t. And besides, whatever else they might claim, and however impressive the recent demonstrations have been, it must be remembered (though many in the anti-government camp reject this notion) that only a minority of the population supports them. Moreover, many of those demonstrating are not out on the streets to show their support for the Democrats and Suthep Thaugsuban, but to express their dissatisfaction with the overall political system.
Over the past few weeks, the Democrats have done themselves no favors with their fiery rhetoric, outlandish behavior and chilling intolerance of alternative viewpoints. And somewhat ironically, their solution to the impasse – a people’s council – can hardly be described as democratic. Even in the unlikely event that the Democrats did get their way, and the government caved in, the reaction of the red shirt majority is almost not worth thinking about.
What some people from both sides of the divide would like to see evolve from this chaos is a new party that is prepared to come clean with its candidates, their policies and their complete rejection of the corrupt practices that have bedeviled recent politics.
This is a long shot, of course, and it can only happen without Thaksin and Suthep. Thailand needs a new start if it is to avoid the kind of strife a few people are now prepared to talk about in public, though many more fear it privately.
• Foreign journalists covering the current political stand-off have come in for a good deal of criticism recently. When BBC correspondent Jonathon Head ran a three-minute TV clip on a red shirt stronghold in the Northeast, he was vilified and accused of bias by anti-government supporters. This was grossly unfair. Head was only doing his job. As a journalist, he is expected to present all points of view. And the couple of people he interviewed do represent the beliefs of millions of Northeasterners who vote for the Pheu Thai party and its leader. They need to be heard just as the opposition needs to be heard. For Thailand to progress, the press should not be gagged.
• A common complaint amongst anti-government supporters is that the Pheu Thai party ‘bought’ its votes. This may well be true, but it’s nothing new, here in Thailand or elsewhere for that matter. Politicians have always won support with promises of great generosity once they’ve been elected. Does anyone remember how the wealthy Thai city of Suphanburi was often jokingly referred to as Banharnburi in recognition of its MP and former prime minister Banharn Silpa-archa whose largesse to his voters always guaranteed his re-election?
